Tagged: I <3 Kubbie

The game we’ve all (shitty part-time fans included) been waiting for

No. 14 Boston College Eagles (14-8-2 (10-6-2 HEA)) vs. No. 15 UMass Minutemen (16-10-0 (11-8-0 HEA))

Well it is upon us again. Everyone’s favorite game of the year. I just love having to get to The Bill an hour earlier than the early time I already get there just to get the same seats I usually do. Okay bandwagon fans, I suppose I’ll grudginly allow you to come to this game (only because I can’t stop you) ability to see this game, but please don’t embarrass the rest of us who are there screaming just as loud when this team plays Merrimack and Niagara. That means you don’t chant “Fuck BC” every ten seconds (Yes, we know it’s fun, but after a while you sound retarded). That means you stay in sync during the chants and follow the clever ones that the regulars know and love (HINT: pay attention to that kid with the goggles). That means please, for the love of that crazy guy up in the sky with the beard that people who go to BC believe in, no swesties painting “zoomass” across their stomachs. Painting the name of our college is fantastic, painting a term that makes all other New England colleges look down on us is not. Thank you.

It has been said by many that only two types of people go to Boston College, rich Catholic snobs and great hockey players. This year’s edition of the BC Eagles once again proves the latter true. The Minutemen will face tonight the most statistically dominating team in Hockey East. The Eagles are the top-scoring team in Hockey East (3.67 GPG), have allowed the second fewest goals per game (2.62), and have the second best special teams scoring differential (+13). UMass ranks fifth (3.19), fifth (2.96), and fourth (+7) in these categories, respectively.

The Eagles have spread the scoring around this year, and they have eight double-digit point scorers in Hockey East games (Brian Gibbons (6-17-23), Cam Atkinson (13-8-21), Joe Whitney (6-10-16), Ben Smith (9-5-14), Carl Sneep {Sneep’s a pussy… you know the rest} (5-9-14), Jimmy Hayes (4-10-14), Pat Mullane (4-7-11), and Paul Carey (3-7-10)). UMass can counter such prolific double-digit Hockey East scorers as James Marcou (6-20-26), Casey Wellman (12-10-22), Will Ortiz (9-8-17), Justin Braun (2-15-17), Matt Irwin (4-9-13), and T.J. Syner (4-6-10). I might add that this is the first time since writing this blog that the Minutemen have actually had less double-digit scorers than their opponent. The Boston College offense averages over 32 shots on goal per game in conference and features a solid power play that scores on 20.4% of its Hockey East opportunities.

Boston College does a good job denying the opposition opportunities to score, as well. With shutdown defensemen like Brian Dumoulin, who has a +14 plus/minus (really, fucking +14! He’s +13 in conference too; what the fuck?) and good all around team defense (their top two scorers are both +8 in Hockey East play), it’s easy to see why BC has only been letting up goals at a rate of just over two and a half a game. What’s more, the Eagles have made their goalies face fewer than 26 shots a game in conference. With these numbers, its easy to see why the less than outstanding John Muse (.911 save % in conference) and that scrub Parker Milner (.887) are only allowing 2.37 and 2.60 goals a game, respectively.

Numbers, however, can be deceiving. BC has had a veritable cakewalk of a schedule so far this year. The Eagles have only had to play the other four teams in the top five of Hockey East (UNH, UMass, Maine, UML) in six of its eighteen Hockey East tilts this season. Since the start of the new year, BC has struggled. They are 4-5-0 in games played in 2010, although they are 4-2-0 in their last five. The key variable during this stretch has been shots on goal. In the four wins since the Jan 1, BC has put up 45, 39, 36, and 43 shots on goal. In the five losses, they have only topped 31 shots on goal once, and that was in an overtime game. So the key to this game would seem to be to limit BC’s shots on goal…

…Which brings us to the part of the Minutemen that makes me shudder, the defense. Our beloved team’s defense is, eh, not great. Giving up an average of 30.4 shots against in conference play not great. Having only five players on the team with positive plus/minus ratings not great. Having a plus/minus leader (Brett Watson) whose rating is only +4 not great. And missing an oft-overlooked but key defenseman in Doug Kublin for the last four games not great. (I’m holding out hope that Kubbie will play tonight, he has endeared himself to me BY KNOWING HOW TO FOLLOW HIS MAN TO THE GODDAMN POST ON A 2-ON-2 , knowledge that seems to elude our other defensemen.)

Still, I hold out hope. Paul Dainton will obviously be back in net tonight (Defense: Please, please, please give him a chance to win, just 31 shots or less, I’m begging.), and hopefully the breather given him by Dan Meyers (who performed very well in the 4-1 victory over Providence) will mean the end to the troubles he had in the two previous losses. The Minutemen are 3-2-0 in their last five and both Jimmy and Casey are due. Neither have scored a goal and they have only combined for three points in the last three games. SIDE NOTE: James Marcou has 32 assists on the year, one more will break the UMass record he set last year. I’m sure he would love to get that in a big way against a big rival.

This game is also on NESN, by the way. (They advertise it as Boston College versus UMass Amherst. Amherst, what the fuck man? This is UMass, that other college is UMass Lowell, get your shit straight NESN.) Usually a televised game would be enough to get me nervous, but there’s something else this year. There hasn’t been that January slide I’ve suffered through every year I’ve been here (please don’t come in February. Or March. Or Ever.), we don’t play down to our opposition, and I find myself really believing in this team.

The Rundown:

Offense: BC (sucks.)
Defense: BC (sucks.)
Goaltending: UMass
Special Teams: BC (sucks.)
Other Factors: UMass

Prediction:

Boston College 2 – 4 Massachusetts
(Against everything my brain tells me, my heart says we can and will win this.)

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